The "Predictable Revenue" Playbook is Dead; RIP (2011-2023)
RIP (2011-2023)
If you’re not already subscribed, I’d love to learn alongside side you this year. If you’re already subscribed, forward this along to one or two friends to start the new year off with some good karma points (but seriously, thanks for supporting!).
Happy New Year (to all those who celebrate)!
Next week will be a happier post :) I’ll outline what I think the “New Playbook” is that’s emerging that will replace the dying Predictable Revenue Playbook.
Okay, let’s jump into today’s topic.
The "Predictable Revenue" Playbook is Dead; RIP (2011-2023)
Do I really think the Predictable Revenue model is dead?
Not exactly.
But, do I think it is dying?
Yes. I really do.
It’s becoming more and more obvious over time.
Change is scary, I know. But this is how the world works. Things evolve. And the B2B SaaS GTM playbook is no different.
The good news is: everything we’ve learned in the old playbook will be critical—even foundational—to building the new playbook. So, all is not lost.
I believe the new playbook will be built on the back of the old (predictable playbook) model. So, while my title is somewhat misleading (gotta get those clickssssss!), I think both statements are true.
And it’s not just me that’s seeing this trend.
If you’re a rep, manager, VP Sales/Marketing, or exec/founder, you know what I’m talking about.
Here’s what doesn’t work anymore:
- Hiring a big team of SDRs
- Buying a ton of tools, and
- Letting them “spray and pray” a bunch of cold outbound emails in hopes that the numbers pan out and they can book meetings for their counterparts (the AE Team).
Now, the smart GTM leaders will read this and (rightfully) say to me: “dude, if you were just spraying and praying, you were doing it wrong all along.” I get it. I really do. But even the best SDR teams in the world who have their playbook totally dialed, are struggling right now.
Adapt or die (sorry), it’s really that simple.
Data clearly paints the picture.
Since 2018, Stage 0 and Stage 1 quotas for SDRs have fallen 29% and 40% respectively. (Source: The Bridge Group).
Think about that stat for a second. Down 40%! That’s absolutely bonkers.
Quality conversations per day have steadily declined:
And, the number of attempts required to book a meeting continues to go up:
The decrease in effectiveness has become a pretty well-known issue in our niche little community.
And the resonance across such a big group of people is telling — see: the number of likes in the screenshot below of one of Adam’s posts (one of many that have gone viral on the subject matter) -
ICYMI: The “Predictable Revenue” model defined
If you don’t know what the “Predictable Model” refers to, here is the TLDR:
Predictable lead generation (define ICP, build list, track conversions)
Specialization of roles (see image below; basically, the invention of the SDR role)
Consistent sales systems (document and follow the same sales process)
If you haven’t read it, you can pick it up for $13 on Amazon (the reviews on Goodreads are hilarious; my favorite is the first one). And here is a really good, quick YouTube video summary.
As I said earlier, there are plenty of fundamentals of the Predictable Revenue model that will be carried into the new playbook as it emerges (it’s emerging now). Such as choosing your ICP and Key Buyer Personas, certain aspects of role specialization, using data to build a repeatable and scalable model, etc.
But, it will evolve to look very different over time.
Looking Forward
There is a new playbook emerging. Right in front of our eyes.
Actually, I think we have the unique opportunity to write the new Playbook. To discover it. To create it. To architect and run it for the first time, ever.
To me, this is the most exciting time in B2B SaaS GTM in the last several years.
The smartest GTM teams are already starting to adopt the new playbook. Companies like Rippling, Ramp, and Apollo have already implemented aspects of it.
Next week, I’ll publish my thoughts on what the new playbook will look like. And more importantly—how to discover it as it emerges. That’s my goal with this newsletter :) To discover the new emerging world, together. (Holler at me if you have thoughts on the topic, or a piece of content that describes the future GTM playbook!)
But for now, let’s pour one out for the old Predictable Revenue model, in honor of all that it’s done for us to this point.
We will miss you, old friend.
RIP: The Predictable Revenue playbook. 2011-2023.
Here’s to 2024!
The year we discover the new B2B SaaS GTM playbook.
“West” we go, to greener pastures beaches. 🫡
B.
very interesting read, thanks